Working Papers and Work in Progress

Working Papers

Euro Area Sovereign Ratings: An Analysis of Fundamental Criteria and Subjective Judgement, 2016, with Rudolf Alvise Lennkh

A Global Tade Model for the Euro Area, 2015, with Michele Modugno and Chiara Osbat

Expectation-Driven Cycles: Time-Varying Effects, 2014, with Caterina Mendicino

Financial Shocks and the Macroeconomy: Heterogeneity and Non-Linearities, 2013, European Central Bank occasional paper series No 143, with different Authors 

Survey-based nowcasting of US growth: a real-time forecast comparison over than 40 years, 2012, European Central Bank working paper No 1455, with Bernd Schnatz 

The predictive content of sectoral stock prices: a US-euro area comparison, 2011, European Central Bank working paper No 1343, with Magnus Andersson, Gabe J. de Bondt and Moreno Roma

Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity, 2011, European Central Bank working paper No 1357, with Konstantins Benkovskis, Michele Caivano, Alistair Dieppe, Samuel Hurtado, Tohmas Karlsson, Eva Ortega and Tímea Várnai

Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP?, February 2008,  European Central Bank working paper No 876,  with Magnus Andersson

The Italian Block of the ESCB Multi-Country Model, July 2006, European Central Bank working paper No 660, with Elena Angelini and Peter McAdam

Sectoral Explanations of Employment in Europe: the Role of Services, May 2006, European Central Bank working paper No 625, with Roberta Serafini and Melanie Ward-Warmedinger

(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability, February 2006, European Central Bank wp No 605 and CEPR Discussion Papers 6594, with Domenico Giannone and Paolo Surico

Work in Progress

Can Consumer Confidence Provide Independent Information on Consumption Spending? Evidence from Euro Area Countries, with Caterina Mendicino

An Endogenous Approach to the Debt Sustainability Analysis: Forecasting and Policy Simulations with Juan Rojas